This week I will finish telling you about the hunting and real estate forecast part of Herb Krumsick’s 2017 Real Estate Review, Forecast and Hunt. The two and a half day event is held at the Flint Oak resort in Fall River, Kansas. See Part 1 here.
There are a couple of developments worth mentioning that have taken place at Flint Oak since my last visit. They have constructed a new cocktail lounge called The Last Shot which is a very pleasant addition to the Lodge. It turned out to be a great place to hang out after a day’s activities in the fields.
Another great addition to the Flint Oak team was Brooklynne Betzen, a Court of Master Sommeliers Level 1 Sommelier. Brooklynne works in the Last Shot Lounge. As I have discussed in the past, a Sommelier is a wine specialist, typically working at higher-end wine establishments. The Sommelier, with an in-depth knowledge of the restaurant’s menu, preparation style and wine list, assists the guest by recommending a wine or wines for the evening. The Sommelier also handles the opening, decanting and pouring of the wine for the party.
It was a pleasure getting to meet Brooklynne and discuss wines and her plans for the future. It didn’t take much conversation with her to learn of her passion for wine and the desire to continue her studies to become a Master Sommelier. Unfortunately, Brooklynne and I didn’t get a lot of timer to chat about wine.
Besides having some wonderful food and wine all shared with good friends, there were other activities and main attractions of the weekend.
On Friday afternoon, as well as Saturday and Sunday mornings, we had shooting events. They included a round of sporting clays, a major European pheasant hunt and some field hunts with some outstanding hunting dogs. In my field hunt Herb got the longest shot award while Stuart Pratt (dead eye) got the most birds and yours truly shot a double (shot two pheasants one after another). All the shooting events were great fun but after shooting several hundred rounds my shoulder was sore, and black and blue.
Real Estate Review and Forecast
The highlight of the weekend (besides tasting some great wines) is always the Saturday afternoon Real Estate and Economic Forecast presentations. This year we had three speakers, all with very interesting topics.
Don S. Peters
Is It Déjà vu All Over Again was the title of Mr. Peters’ presentation. He spoke on the current state of the U.S. economy. Some of his predictions and thoughts:
- Interest rates are rising now but will go back down in Q3 2018
- We are back in a Bubble Economy which will burst in two to three years
- Investments are over-valued
Overall he feels we are in for some “rough water” in the economy in the next two to three years.
Hugh W. Grill, Attorney At Law – Hinkle Law Firm
Mr. Grill spoke on estate planning through the use of trusts. His presentation was very interesting, but as these topics go, we only had time to touch on the highlights of some extensive and complicated topics and information. All good stuff to consider.
Gabriel Silverstein – Commercial Real Estate Capital and Investment Market Report
Gabriel claims we are in the “seventh inning stretch” of this (current) economic cycle. Here are some of his comments:
- The economy has room to run – could go extra innings even, but some of that expansion room is structurally locked up today
- There is a need to rebuild the middle class which has been largely wiped out and will be completely extinct if the zero interest rate environment continues much longer globally
- Interest rates will begin to raise consistently – usually a harbinger that there is 30 to 36 months of economic expansion remaining
- Inflation will remain tame, at least for now
- Headline unemployment will fall slowly but steadily. The real unemployment rate is much higher than published rates
- The Affordable Care Act will not ruin the economy, but it will require major overhaul. For now it will be most impactful as a tax on the middle class and entrepreneurs
Here are several of Gabriel’s final thoughts that I personally find interesting and troublesome at the same time:
- Our education system is failing rapidly and is a brewing super-storm
- The U.S. infrastructure is rapidly aging and generally well over design capacity
- This market cycle should peak in 2017-2018 and downturn in 2019-2020
I came away from these economic sessions with the general sense that our economy will remain stable for the next 24 to 30 months and then we’ll head into another recession in 2020. Not the best news, but we all know the economy cycles and dips happen every so often.
This is always a fun event to attend and this year was no exception. Unfortunately we are all getting older and our group of regulars is shrinking but friendships are lasting and I look forward to seeing everyone next year.
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Until next week,
Calendar of upcoming events:
April – Michigan Wine Month
April 17 – World Malbec Day
April 24 – International Sauvignon Blanc Day
May 9 – Moscato Day
May 21 – National Chardonnay Day